Market status? Recession? Expendable cash?

[acpaterson]

Interesting how the market moves, it's like a tide. I recall when I was in the market early 2014, I had two busses to choose from in reality. And pricing was 45 to 65 K.

Now, (and moreso in Cape Town strangely), there are more busses on the market than you can shake a stick at. Choice is pretty good, and anyone REALLY wanting to get into a project or to build a camper\bus\people carrier, now is the time. But the busses seem to be standing. Is this a sign of the current economic climate perhaps?
And I'm not talking of the 200 plus K busses. Either there are no new 'waves" of future bus owners right now, or we've gotten a little more fussy over what we want to buy, or we seriously are cash strapped.

Interesting to watch, both here with fig's awesome updating from Gumtree, and what I see coming onto the two main Facebook groups.

Also, if you're interested, I created the Kombis for sale group just over 2 months ago, and although the uptake is slow, the membership count for requests to join than group has gone through 600, in 2 months! So, strangely, there SEEMS to be valid interest, interesting.

Enjoy your weekend guys.

Alan

[fig]

Interesting question. I've been wondering the same thing.

I think it's a number of factors, but the main one is the state of our economy and the uncertainty about where we're going as a country. Hundreds of thousands of people have lost their jobs in SA over the past year or two. We're all being Zuptaed and that is dragging all of us down. My wife is an estate agent and her area has been cooking since 2008, despite all the doom and gloom stories about the property market. Up to December she was selling most of her stock at or higher than asking price, before she put it on show. This year she has very little stock and no buyers. Even where people have money to buy discretionary stuff like classic cars, I think we are all being cautious and not spending anything we don't have to.

Until quite recently I couldn't keep track of the rising prices for classic buses in SA. But something has definitely shifted, as you've observed Alan. A lot of buses that are not outrageously priced, are not selling. They're not selling to locals or to foreigners. In the past, if a bus was overpriced, it would still be exported, but that seems to have hit a road block lately. Look at the baby-blue striped Fleetline panelvan on gumtree for R200k. The ad has been up for a while, apparently with no takers. Also the latest batch of buses by our friend in Centurion/Germiston/Kempton Park, which also don't seem to be moving.

I suspect things will remain as they are at least until after the local govt elections. As Alan says, if you want a bus, now is probably a good time to buy one. The market will pick up again sooner or later, and prices will keep rising.

[Derek]

As you know, I am always in the market to buy a kombi camper or on occasion a tin top. My experience in the past 9 months is that the bulk of the vans on offer are either rustbuckets, which cost too much to restore properly, or are overpriced restored vehicles, with not that many original vehicles in good condition at a fair price on offer. They are still out there, but when they do pop up they are snapped up within hours of being offered for sale.

I think we now have quite a number of 'scouts' acting on behalf of UK or Aussie buyers/dealers who pounce on the gems with cash in hand. They want clean, original vans, and tend to grab most of them. They do NOT want rusty vehicles needing loads of work. They also don't want to pay top dollar for already restored vans - R 100 000 seems to be their ceiling. So people advertising bay window kombi's at R 160 000 - R 260 000 have no buyers for their vehicles. It's true that now is the time to buy at the bottom end of the market if you're looking for a project...but always make a realistic offer as even the sellers of rustbuckets have an inflated notion of the value of their wreck.

[Tony Z]

I also think that part of it is what has happened to prices recently. Many people hold onto their "projects" for years and then sell it or just keep on keeping it until they get to it. But now over the last few months the gumtree prices have gone through the roof and maybe these guys are deciding to sell their projects for stupid prices.
Alan, you might have been looking when the trend was to hold onto your projects until you get to them and now the trend is to sell rust for huge sums of money.

[retrovan]

Old way of doing things;- Buy, Restore, Enjoy, Sell

New way of doing things;- Buy, Store, Sell

Money, Money, Money, always Money...........

Herman

[Derek]

You've got it spot on Retrovan...People hang onto vehicles which degrade and rust over time, and then try and sell at a massive premium.

[sean]

As you know, I am always in the market to buy a kombi camper or on occasion a tin top. My experience in the past 9 months is that the bulk of the vans on offer are either rustbuckets, which cost too much to restore properly, or are overpriced restored vehicles, with not that many original vehicles in good condition at a fair price on offer. They are still out there, but when they do pop up they are snapped up within hours of being offered for sale.

I think we now have quite a number of 'scouts' acting on behalf of UK or Aussie buyers/dealers who pounce on the gems with cash in hand. They want clean, original vans, and tend to grab most of them. They do NOT want rusty vehicles needing loads of work. They also don't want to pay top dollar for already restored vans - R 100 000 seems to be their ceiling. So people advertising bay window kombi's at R 160 000 - R 260 000 have no buyers for their vehicles. It's true that now is the time to buy at the bottom end of the market if you're looking for a project...but always make a realistic offer as even the sellers of rustbuckets have an inflated notion of the value of their wreck.

I honestly cant stand listening to this any longer. You have all this to say about other busses listed for sale, that they overvalued, need work etc etc, but you don't seem to apply this when you selling one of your vehicles.

Just look at this Frankenstein you were selling the other day for R120 000. Im telling you I wouldnt pay R10k for that lemon.

http://www.aircooledvwsa.co.za/viewtopi ... ia#p300081